With islands and atolls scattered across the ocean, the small Pacific
island states are among those most exposed to the effects of global
warming: increasing acidity and rising sea level, more frequent natural
disasters and damage to coral reefs. These micro-states, home to about
10 million people, are already paying for the environmental
irresponsibility of the great powers.
"Pacific islands are the
victims of industrial countries unable to control their carbon dioxide
emissions. The truth of the matter is that we have no option but to
accept this and adapt," says Dr Jimmie Rodgers, the head of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), a regional development organisation. At the initiative of France's Research on Development Institute (IRD) and New Caledonia University, 30 or so scientists from the Pacific basin spent a week at the end of April discussing the design of a sustainable development model suited to local conditions – in particular, pressure from the climate on ways of life that reach back several millennia.
In a study published by the journal Nature Climate Change,
the SPC and IRD draw attention to the considerable impact of global
warming on food security on these islands. Fish stocks, the main source
of protein for islanders and the basis for development, will be
particularly affected. Currently about 1m tonnes of tuna and tuna-like
fishes are caught every year in the region.
For the Kiribati group of islands, fishing
accounts for 40% of GDP, whereas on the Marshall Islands fisheries and
fish processing represent a quarter of overall revenue. "The rising
temperature of surface waters, which is greater in the western part of
the ocean basin, will encourage tuna to migrate east towards Polynesia," says Johann Bell, principal fisheries scientist at SPC and one of the authors of the study.
Melanesian countries, such as Papua New Guinea or the Solomon Islands,
will suffer most. "PNG has a large canning industry, but in a few
decades it will have to import tuna to keep it running," Bell adds.
"Fortunately it can count on favourable international agreements to buy
[fish] wherever it likes, with low customs duty." But the disappearance
of the tuna shoals could mean major financial losses for smaller
economies such as Tuvalu or Kiribati.
The
effects for coastal fisheries are likely to be even more dramatic, due
to damage to the coral reefs. The population density of live reefs is
expected to drop from 40% at present, for the Pacific as a whole, to 10%
or 20% by 2050, the scientists explain. The decrease in the fish stocks
in the lagoons coincides with high population growth, particularly in Melanesia.
With
an increase in rainfall, the SPC is advocating the development of fish
farms and freshwater fisheries. On Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa, farms have
recently started raising Nile tilapia, an alien species. To reduce
pressure on the reefs and allow coastal residents to catch tuna, there
are also plans to build floating pontoons to attract the fish.
On
land, life must adapt to the changing conditions too. On Fiji, the
Centre for Pacific Crops and Trees has set up a department to focus on
adapting staple crops.
"Climate change brings new constraints for
crops, which are subject to unpredictable ecological pressures such as
drought, higher salt concentrations, extreme temperatures and erosion," a
representative explains. Thousands of varieties of manioc, taro, sweet
potato and banana have been screened in order to offer farmers new, more
robust varieties. "We are promoting these seeds," says Henry Puna,
prime minister of the Cook Islands (population 12,200), which have been
hard-hit by coastal erosion.
But funds for adaptation programmes
are in very short supply. International funding mechanisms are designed
for medium-sized or large countries. Most of the Pacific island states
are too small to qualify. "We cannot make ourselves heard in the
international arena. It is vital for us to act as a region," Puna
asserts. He is consequently delighted that climate change is the central
theme of this year's summit meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum on the Marshall Islands in September.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/07/pacific-islands-global-warming-climate
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